SkepticalSam

📄 The Great Filter hypothesis -- a new Great Filter?

The Great Filter hypothesis -- a new Great Filter?

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The Critique

Assumes TFR trends from 1963-2023 continue unchanged for 500+ years. Ignores AI/automation changing economic incentives, pro-natalist policies, demographic transition theory, and selection effects where higher-fertility subpopulations become more prevalent.

Why It Matters

Making extinction predictions based on naive exponential extrapolation without accounting for adaptation is alarmist pseudoscience dressed in mathematical formalism.